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Testing For Deterministic And Stochastic Cycles In Macroeconomic Time Series

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    ()

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

In this paper we use a statistical procedure which is appropriate to test for deterministic and stochastic (stationary and nonstationary) cycles in macroeconomic time series. These tests have standard null and local limit distributions and are easy to apply to raw time series. Monte Carlo evidence shows that they perform relatively well in the case of functional misspecification in the cyclical structure of the series. As an example, we use this approach to test for the presence of cycles in US real GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Testing For Deterministic And Stochastic Cycles In Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  • Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:05-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arteche, Josu & Robinson, Peter M., 1998. "Seasonal and cyclical long memory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2241, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. repec:bla:jtsera:v:15:y:1994:i:5:p:561-562 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gregoir, St phane, 1999. "Multivariate Time Series With Various Hidden Unit Roots, Part I," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 435-468, August.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. repec:bla:jtsera:v:21:y:2000:i:1:p:1-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Josu Arteche & Peter M. Robinson, 2000. "Semiparametric Inference in Seasonal and Cyclical Long Memory Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
    7. Dalla, Violetta & Hidalgo, Javier, 2005. "A parametric bootstrap test for cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 219-261.
    8. repec:bla:jtsera:v:10:y:1989:i:3:p:233-257 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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