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Movimentos Especulativos de Capitais e Comportamento da Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando de Aquino Fonseca Neto

    () (Banco Central do Brasil)

  • Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira

    (Departamento de Economia (Department of Economics) Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Ciência da Informação e Documentação (FACE) (Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Information Science) Universidade de Brasília)

Abstract

This paper analyse the influences of speculative capital movements on exchange rate levels and its volatility in Brazil. Approaches based only in fundamentals are unable to explain some empirical regularity. The speculative behaviour needs to be considered. In particular, empirical works indicates that its fundamental value is a long run trend frequently shifted, suggesting that such rate is, at most, a sequence of temporary equilibria. Our extended model dealing with international arbitrage point out some difficulties of the Central Bank to manage the exchange rate in an environment of financial globalisation. To constrain capital flows may reduce volatility and to restore official possibility to control exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando de Aquino Fonseca Neto & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2004. "Movimentos Especulativos de Capitais e Comportamento da Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil," Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia 321, Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia.
  • Handle: RePEc:brs:wpaper:321
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    File URL: http://vsites.unb.br/face/eco/cpe/TD/321nov2004Aquino.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative capital; Exchange rate; Macroeconomic policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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