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The Elusive Effects of Demography on Rates of Return

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  • Edmund Cannon

    ()

Abstract

Projected large changes in demographic profiles of developed countries over the next fifty years have led to increasing interest in the relationship between population structure and macroeconomic performance. Because demographic changes tend to be very slow, empirical analysis requires long time data sets, and this means that there is little evidence available for the likely effects of these changes. This paper addresses the problem by using panel data for 1900-1999 for sixteen developed countries to investigate the effects of population structure on rates of return. It concludes that there is no obvious direct relationship between demographics and rates of return, although there may be some indirect effect via the growth rate of the GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Edmund Cannon, 2003. "The Elusive Effects of Demography on Rates of Return," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/551, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  • Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:03/551
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. DaVanzo, J. & Pebley, A.R., 1993. "Maternal Depletion and Child Survival in Guatemala and Malaysia," Papers 93-18, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
    2. Jane Miller & James Trussell & Anne Pebley & Barbara Vaughan, 1992. "Birth spacing and child mortality in bangladesh and the Philippines," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(2), pages 305-318, May.
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    5. Bhargava, Alok, 2003. "Family planning, gender differences and infant mortality: evidence from Uttar Pradesh, India," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 225-240, January.
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    7. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
    8. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1988. "Migration and urbanization," Handbook of Development Economics,in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 425-465 Elsevier.
    9. Narendranathan, Wiji & Elias, Peter, 1993. "Influences of Past History on the Incidence of Youth Unemployment: Empirical Findings for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(2), pages 161-185, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rates of return; demographic effects; population structure;

    JEL classification:

    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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