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Valuation accuracy and infinity horizon forecasts


  • Lucio Cassia
  • Silvio Vismara


This paper focuses on the assumptions of infinite-horizon forecasting in the field of firm valuation. The estimate of long-run continuing values is based on the hypothesis that companies should have reached the steady-state at the end of the period of explicit forecasts, i.e. due to competition forces any eventual source of extra profitability ends. It is argued that the equivalence between cash accounting and accrual accounting is the way of verifying such steady-state assumption. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an accuracy index measuring the variance of the target prices due to variations in long-term assumptions. The efficacy of this index is validated by using Logit and Cox regression models on a sample of 784 equity reports on European companies published by sell-side analysts.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucio Cassia & Silvio Vismara, 2007. "Valuation accuracy and infinity horizon forecasts," Working Papers 0705, Department of Economics and Technology Management, University of Bergamo.
  • Handle: RePEc:brh:wpaper:0705

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sara Ellison Fisher & Iain Cockburn & Zvi Griliches & Jerry Hausman, 1997. "Characteristics of Demand for Pharmaceutical Products: An Examination of Four Cephalosporins," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(3), pages 426-446, Autumn.
    2. Alston, Julian M & Foster, Kenneth A & Green, Richard D, 1994. "Estimating Elasticities with the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System: Some Monte Carlo Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 351-356, May.
    3. Filippini, Massimo & Masiero, Giuliano & Moschetti, Karine, 2006. "Socioeconomic determinants of regional differences in outpatient antibiotic consumption: Evidence from Switzerland," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 77-92, August.
    4. Ray, Ranjan, 1980. "Analysis of a Time Series of Household Expenditure Surveys for India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(4), pages 595-602, November.
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