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Modeling Bank Panics: Challenges

Author

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  • Lawrence Christiano
  • Husnu Dalgic
  • Xiaoming Li

Abstract

Our primary finding is that surprisingly small changes in assumptions which determine the amount of net worth available in a bank panic have an important impact on the nature of the equilibria: there may not be a bank panic at all, or there may be several di erent panics of di erent severity. The economic reasons for this sensitivity are clarified by transforming the market economy into a game and studying banker best response functions. To establish robustness to model details, we report similar quantitative results across three di erent model specifications and calibrations. A second, additional result, is displayed in a three-period version of the panic model of Gertler and Kiyotaki (2015). That model naturally suggests the idea that welfare can be improved by imposing a restriction on bank leverage. We compute the Ramsey-optimal leverage restriction, but find that there is an implementation problem: the restriction can be associated with more than one equilibrium, not just the desired one. We discuss one way to address the implementation problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence Christiano & Husnu Dalgic & Xiaoming Li, 2022. "Modeling Bank Panics: Challenges," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_343, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2022_343
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    Keywords

    Bank runs; financial crises; macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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