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Supplementary Paper Series for the "Comprehensive Assessment" (1): Developments in Inflation Expectations over the Three Years since the Introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE)


  • Kousuke Nishino

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Hiroki Yamamoto

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Jun Kitahara

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Takashi Nagahata

    (Bank of Japan)


More than three years have passed since the Bank of Japan introduced QQE. This article provides analysis on developments in inflation expectations and on factors that have affected those developments during that period. Developments in inflation expectations can be divided into three phases in which inflation expectations rose, were flat, and weakened. While QQE pushed up inflation expectations, exogenous developments, such as the decline in crude oil prices and the volatility in global financial markets stemming from emerging economies, seem to have exerted downward pressure. Inflation expectations in Japan are inclined to develop in tandem with observed inflation; that is, expectations formation is largely adaptive. Thus, since summer 2014, with a fall in observed inflation rates due to exogenous factors, such as the decline in crude oil prices, inflation expectations followed suit, strongly reflecting the fall.

Suggested Citation

  • Kousuke Nishino & Hiroki Yamamoto & Jun Kitahara & Takashi Nagahata, 2016. "Supplementary Paper Series for the "Comprehensive Assessment" (1): Developments in Inflation Expectations over the Three Years since the Introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary," Bank of Japan Review Series 16-E-13, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev16e13

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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshihiko Hogen & Ryoichi Okuma, 2018. "The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Japan: A Learning-Approach Perspective," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    2. Tomiyuki Kitamura & Masaki Tanaka, 2019. "Firms' Inflation Expectations under Rational Inattention and Sticky Information: An Analysis with a Small-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-16, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item


    Monetary policy; inflation expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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