Heterogeneous effects of sanctions on institutional quality in target states

The effectiveness of sanctions has been the subject of intense debate over the last few years, but their impact on institutional quality in target states remains largely unexplored. This study uses quantile regression to assess the impact of international sanctions imposed by the US, the EU, and the UN on institutional quality. I use data for 194 countries from 1990 to 2023 and distinguish between economic and noneconomic sanctions. My results show that sanctions have a detrimental impact on institutional quality in the targeted countries. The impact is quite heterogeneous and depends on both the type of sanction imposed and the sender. In the vast majority of cases, better institutional quality in the target state can partially alleviate the negative impact of sanctions, the intensity decreasing with institutional quality. From a policy perspective, my study highlights that sanctions impose unintended costs on target countries by weakening their capacity to strengthen their institutional systems.