Demographic estimation and projection methods using Stata: Mortality, fertility, and multistate population dynamics

Reliable demographic analysis in settings with incomplete or imperfect data requires flexible and transparent estimation and projection tools. This paper presents an integrated suite of Stata-based methods for estimating mortality and fertility and for projecting populations by age, sex, and additional characteristics. First, I revisit intercensal approaches to mortality estimation, including census-based, death distribution, and iterative methods, and introduce tools for constructing single-decrement life tables and estimating age-specific net migration using two population age distributions and intercensal deaths. Second, I describe an enhanced implementation of the own-children method for estimating age-specific fertility rates, providing graphical summaries of recent fertility patterns, weighted subgroup estimates, and a wide range of reproductive indicators derived from biological mother-child links. Third, I present a matrix-based projection framework for forecasting population dynamics under specified schedules of fertility, mortality, and migration, supporting one- and two-sex models as well as multistate classifications such as region, race, or health status. Empirical illustrations draw on census and register data from Vietnam, Brazil, and Sweden, demonstrating applicability across diverse demographic contexts. Together, these methods offer a coherent and extensible toolkit for demographic estimation and projection using standard data sources.