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Official statistics release and inflation expectations


  • Serafín Frache

    (Universidad de Montevideo)

  • Rodrigo Lluberas

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)


The empirical evidence on the social value of public information is scarce. In this paper, we provide evidence on how firms' inflation expectations react to the publication of public information, i.e. the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a country with a history of high and volatile inflation. We show that firms that answer the survey after the release of public information are more likely to revise their current year inflation expectations, have lower forecast errors, and lower disagreement about future inflation than firms that answer the survey before the publication of the official CPI monthly statistics. In that sense albeit the existing evidence for low-inflation countries suggests that agents do not react to monetary policy announcements or the publication of public information, we show that might not be the case in medium or high-inflation countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Serafín Frache & Rodrigo Lluberas, 2020. "Official statistics release and inflation expectations," Documentos de trabajo 2020009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
  • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2020009

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    More about this item


    national accounts; agricultural sector; methodology; regions; employment; structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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