Evaluating India's Energy Ambitions: Evidence from Electricity Generation Project-Level Data

This paper uses data on electricity projects from the CapEx database maintained by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) and estimates that India is likely to fall short of the optimal capacity requirement identified by the Central Electricity Authority for 2030. The shortfall stems from delays in the implementation and completion of projects. The paper finds that 30% of conventional and 39% of renewable energy projects ever announced have been completed, accounting for 15% and 9% of the total announced capacity, respectively, highlighting the difficulty in completing large-scale projects. Completion timelines are shorter for privately developed renewable and conventional projects, with the top 50 renewable energy developers outperforming others. Completion outcomes also differ by energy type, with solar and wind projects having the lowest completion timelines and the highest completion rates. These findings highlight the need for more targeted policy designs that account for the impact of these factors on project timelines, to ensure that the planned capacity translates into actual electricity supply needed to meet India's future demands.