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Money Transmission Mechanisms and Identified Long-Run Relationships between the Banking Sector's Balance Sheet and the Macroeconomy in Pakistan

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  • J L Ford
  • Zahid Mohammad

Abstract

This paper employs semi-annual observations from 1964s1 to 2005s1 to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanism that has operated in Pakistan. It does so by using the familiar VAR approach and by analysing impulse responses and variance decompositions to banking sector and macroeconomic variables consequent upon innovations to the chosen indicator of monetary conditions. Those analyses demonstrate that the bank lending channel operates in Pakistan. The resultant VEC models embody cointegration; and this is used to identify long-run relationships between the variables. Observations are extended to 2008s2 to provide some indication of the out-of-sample quality of information provided by those relationships. Investigations using the Kalman filter provide evidence that, crucially, the innovations to the monetary indicators are influenced by sudden adjustments of monetary policy instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • J L Ford & Zahid Mohammad, 2010. "Money Transmission Mechanisms and Identified Long-Run Relationships between the Banking Sector's Balance Sheet and the Macroeconomy in Pakistan," Discussion Papers 10-21, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:10-21
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    Keywords

    monetary transmission mechanisms; disaggregation of bank loans; VARs; VECs; identified cointegration vectors; innovations to SBP's monetary instruments and monetary indicator innovations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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