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Heatwaves and economic activity: what can we learn from business leaders’ comments?
[Canicule et activité économique : que nous disent les entreprises ?]

Author

Listed:
  • Mélanie Coueffé
  • Léo Parpais
  • Maxime Ponsart

Abstract

The year 2026 was marked by three successive heatwaves, an exceptional drought and severe wildfires. The Banque de France’s Monthly Business Survey makes it possible to track, almost in real-time, how these events affected firms, and the differences in impacts across sectors. This information is then used to compile the Banque de France’s GDP growth forecast. Overall, the impact on activity is expected to remain limited in 2026 and should mainly be concentrated in agriculture. L’été 2026 a été marqué par trois vagues de chaleur successives, accompagnées d’une sécheresse exceptionnelle et d’importants incendies. L’Enquête mensuelle de conjoncture de la Banque de France permet d’observer presque en temps réel la façon dont ces événements ont affecté les entreprises, avec des effets très différents selon les secteurs. Ces informations alimentent ensuite la prévision du PIB. Au total, l’impact sur l’activité resterait limité en 2026 et serait principalement concentré dans l’agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Mélanie Coueffé & Léo Parpais & Maxime Ponsart, 2026. "Heatwaves and economic activity: what can we learn from business leaders’ comments? [Canicule et activité économique : que nous disent les entreprises ?]," Eco Notepad 466, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:466
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