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NGFS short-term climate scenarios: takeaways for France
[Scénarios climatiques de court terme du NGFS : résultats pour la France]

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Champey
  • Léopold Gosset

Abstract

In May 2025, the NGFS published its first short-term climate scenarios. If Europe were to experience a combination of particularly severe weather events, France could lose 7.4% of its GDP. The French economy would benefit from a gradual and efficient low-carbon transition, but would be negatively affected if the transition was delayed and disorderly. En mai 2025, le NGFS a publié ses premiers scénarios climatiques de court terme. La France pourrait subir une perte de 7,4% du PIB si l'Europe connaissait une combinaison d’évènements météorologiques particulièrement sévères. L’économie française bénéficierait par ailleurs d’une transition bas-carbone graduelle et efficiente, mais serait négativement affectée par une transition retardée et désordonnée.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Champey & Léopold Gosset, 2026. "NGFS short-term climate scenarios: takeaways for France [Scénarios climatiques de court terme du NGFS : résultats pour la France]," Eco Notepad 447, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:447
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    File URL: https://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications-et-statistiques/publications/scenarios-climatiques-de-court-terme-du-ngfs-resultats-pour-la-france
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