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Inflation and growth: professional forecasters continue to express high levels of uncertainty
[Inflation et croissance : des niveaux d’incertitude qui restent élevés chez les prévisionnistes]

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  • Eric Vansteenberghe

Abstract

Professional forecasters in the euro area are unanimous in expecting inflation in 2026 to be close to the 2% euro area target. This blog post introduces an uncertainty measure adjusted for level effects surrounding inflation and economic growth and shows that the risks perceived by professional forecasters remain historically high. Les prévisionnistes en zone euro anticipent tous pour 2026 une inflation proche de la cible à 2 % pour la zone euro. Ce billet introduit une mesure corrigée de l’incertitude sur l’inflation et la croissance de l’activité et montre que les risques perçus par les prévisionnistes restent encore à des niveaux historiquement élevés.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Vansteenberghe, 2026. "Inflation and growth: professional forecasters continue to express high levels of uncertainty [Inflation et croissance : des niveaux d’incertitude qui restent élevés chez les prévisionnistes]," Eco Notepad 436, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:436
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