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A historic rise in protectionism in the United States since January 2025
[La hausse historique du protectionnisme aux États-Unis depuis janvier 2025]

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Berthou
  • Lise Marchal
  • Charles Serfaty
  • Gabriel Smagghue

Abstract

The average (statutory) tariff levied by the United States on its imports increased by approximately 14 percentage points between January and September 2025, giving an average rate of between 18% and 20%, depending on the calculation method used. This increase factors in all new tariffs applied during this period, including those announced on 1 August 2025, as well as exemptions. It is comparable historically to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930. The average tariff levied on imports from France is estimated to be approximately 11% in September 2025 – compared with 1.5% in January 2025 – if the commitments in the European Union's trade agreement with the United States are fully implemented. Le droit de douane moyen (statutaire) appliqué par les États-Unis sur leurs importations a augmenté d’environ 14 points de pourcentage entre janvier et septembre 2025, pour un taux moyen compris entre 18% et 20% suivant le mode de calcul retenu. Ce niveau tient compte de l’ensemble des nouveaux droits de douane appliqués sur cette période, y compris les annonces du 1er août 2025, et des éventuelles exceptions. Il est comparable historiquement aux droits Smoot-Hawley de 1930. Le droit de douane moyen appliqué sur les importations depuis la France serait d’environ 11% en septembre 2025, contre 1,5% en janvier 2025, en cas d’application complète des engagements de l’accord commercial de l’Union européenne avec les États-Unis.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Berthou & Lise Marchal & Charles Serfaty & Gabriel Smagghue, 2025. "A historic rise in protectionism in the United States since January 2025 [La hausse historique du protectionnisme aux États-Unis depuis janvier 2025]," Eco Notepad (in progress) 413, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:413
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