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Climate transition scenarios and financial risk
[Scénarios de transition climatique et risques financiers]

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Mateo Caicedo Graciano
  • Laurent Clerc
  • Fulvio Pegoraro
  • Marie Rabaté

Abstract

As part of the first climate pilot exercise, the Banque de France and the ACPR developed a series of models to quantify the financial risks associated with different climate transition scenarios. We present some of the results in this post. In some scenarios, the oil industry's probability of default is expected to increase by 400 bps, its credit spread by 30 bps and its stock market valuation is expected to decrease by 40-50% in 2050. Dans le cadre du premier exercice pilote climatique, la Banque de France et l’ACPR ont développé une suite de modèles pour quantifier les risques financiers associés à différents scénarios de transition climatique. Nous en présentons ici quelques résultats. Dans certains scénarios, la probabilité de défaut de l’industrie pétrolière augmenterait de 400 bps, son spread de crédit de 30 bps en 2050 et sa valorisation boursière serait amputée de 40% à 50%.

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Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:257
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File URL: https://www.banque-france.fr/en/publications-and-statistics/publications/climate-transition-scenarios-and-financial-risk
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File URL: https://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications-et-statistiques/publications/scenarios-de-transition-climatique-et-risques-financiers
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