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Covid-19 and divergence in GDP declines between Europe and the United States
[Covid-19 et divergence de baisses de PIB entre Europe et États-Unis]

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  • Nicolas Châtelais

Abstract

In 2020, the fall in GDP was less pronounced in the United States than in Europe. The restrictions on activity and travel – both imposed and voluntary - linked to the fight against the pandemic, which were greater in France/Italy/Spain, account for more than 40% of the gap with the United States. This factor was amplified by the difference in sectoral specialization (US digital advantage, weight of tourism in Europe). The difference in the level of fiscal support explains less than 20% of the gap. La baisse du PIB en 2020 a été moindre aux États-Unis qu’en Europe. Les restrictions sur l’activité et les déplacements –imposées ou volontaires- liées à la lutte contre la pandémie, plus fortes en France/Italie/Espagne, expliqueraient plus de 40% de la divergence avec les États-Unis. Ce facteur a été amplifié par la différence de spécialisation sectorielle (avantage américain sur le digital, poids du tourisme en Europe). L’écart de soutien budgétaire explique moins de 20 % de l’écart.

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Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:229
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