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How to interpret the rebound in French GDP in 2021-2022?
[Comment comprendre le rebond du PIB français en 2021-2022 ?]

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Aldama
  • Hadrien Camatte
  • Jean-François Ouvrard
  • Paul Sabalot

Abstract

According to the Banque de France macroeconomic projections published on 14 September 2020, after declining by 8.7% in 2020, GDP growth is expected to stand at 7.4% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. Despite this apparently impressive rebound, the economic catching-up process should in reality only be very gradual. GDP should only return to its pre-crisis level at the beginning of 2022. This post provides a few explanations of these unusual growth rates. Selon les projections de la Banque de France publiées le 14 septembre 2020, après une contraction de 8,7 % en 2020, la croissance du PIB serait de + 7,4 % en 2021 et de + 3,0 % en 2022. Malgré ce rebond apparemment impressionnant, le rattrapage du niveau d’activité ne serait en réalité que très progressif. Le PIB retrouverait son niveau d’avant crise seulement début 2022. Ce billet donne quelques éléments de compréhension de ces taux de variation inhabituels.

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Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:182
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File URL: https://www.banque-france.fr/en/publications-and-statistics/publications/how-interpret-rebound-french-gdp-2021-2022
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File URL: https://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications-et-statistiques/publications/comment-comprendre-le-rebond-du-pib-francais-en-2021-2022
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