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Will the euro area’s economic expansion die of old age?
[L’expansion économique de la zone euro mourra-t-elle de vieillesse ?]

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  • Stéphane Lhuissier

Abstract

While the duration of an expansion can intuitively be associated with its age, a study of historical GDP data for the euro area reveals that this is not the case. Old economic expansions are as likely to disappear as new ones. Like J. R. R. Tolkien's Elves, expansions are "biologically immortal": they do not die of old age, but of exogenous causes. Si la pérennité d’une expansion peut intuitivement être associée à son âge, l’étude des données historiques du PIB de la zone euro révèle que ce n’est pas le cas. Les expansions âgées ne sont pas plus susceptibles de disparaître que les jeunes. À l’instar des Elfes de J.R.R Tolkien, les expansions sont « biologiquement immortelles » : elles ne meurent pas de vieillesse, mais de causes exogènes.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Lhuissier, 2019. "Will the euro area’s economic expansion die of old age? [L’expansion économique de la zone euro mourra-t-elle de vieillesse ?]," Eco Notepad (in progress) 139, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:139
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