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Where is euro area inflation in relation to the “Phillips cone”?
[Où se situe l’inflation en zone euro dans le « cône de Phillips » ?]

Author

Listed:
  • Clémence Berson
  • Hadrien Camatte
  • Antoine Lalliard
  • Julien Le Roux

Abstract

The “Phillips cone” is a range of possible values for inflation obtained using different specifications of the Phillips curve. The Eurosystem’s June 2019 projection for euro area inflation is slightly below the median forecast in the Phillips cone for the entire projection horizon, and even slightly below the cone at the start of the horizon. This suggests that the Eurosystem’s projection is fairly prudent. Le « cône de Phillips » est un éventail de valeurs possibles de l’inflation obtenu à partir de différentes spécifications de la courbe de Phillips. La prévision d’inflation zone euro de l’Eurosystème de juin 2019 est un peu inférieure à la prévision médiane du cône de Phillips sur toute la période de projection et même légèrement au-dessous du cône en début de prévision. Elle est, en ce sens, assez prudente.

Suggested Citation

  • Clémence Berson & Hadrien Camatte & Antoine Lalliard & Julien Le Roux, 2019. "Where is euro area inflation in relation to the “Phillips cone”? [Où se situe l’inflation en zone euro dans le « cône de Phillips » ?]," Eco Notepad (in progress) 125, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:125
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