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Exchange rate impact on the US and euro area
[Impact de taux de change en ZE et aux États-Unis]

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  • Sophie Haincourt

Abstract

According to model simulations, the dollar appreciation in effective terms would have choked 0.2 percentage point (pp) off US growth since mid-2014. Meanwhile, the euro depreciation would have added 0.5pp to Euro Area (EA) growth. But since mid-2015 the euro has been appreciating, dampening growth by 0.2pp. Higher openness of the EA, as well as a larger exposure to emerging economies, could be an explanation. Selon nos estimations, l’appréciation du dollar depuis mi-2014 aurait coûté 0,2 point de croissance à l’économie américaine. Sur la même période, la dépréciation de l’euro aurait contribué à la croissance de la zone euro à hauteur de 0,5 point. En revanche, l’appréciation de l’euro depuis mi-2015 aurait réduit la croissance de la ZE de 0,2 point de pourcentage. Cela est dû au taux d’ouverture élevé et à l’exposition importante aux pays émergents.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Haincourt, 2017. "Exchange rate impact on the US and euro area [Impact de taux de change en ZE et aux États-Unis]," Eco Notepad (in progress) 10, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:10
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