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The Normalization of Global Trade and China
[Normalisation du commerce mondial et Chine]

Author

Listed:
  • Guillaume Gaulier
  • Walter Steingress
  • Soledad Zignago

Abstract

Over the past five years, global trade and global production have grown at similar rates, whereas before 2008, global trade grew at twice the rate. This slowdown in global trade is largely due to China’s rebalancing towards its domestic demand and its services sector. If we exclude the decline in trade related to increasing protectionism, near-parallel growth for global trade and production is the new “normal”. Depuis cinq ans, la croissance du commerce mondial est proche de celle de l'activité industrielle après avoir été deux fois plus rapide avant 2008. Ce ralentissement s’explique largement par le rééquilibrage de la Chine vers sa demande interne et la production de services. Une croissance quasi parallèle du commerce et de l’activité industrielle mondiale devient dès lors la « norme », si l’on exclut un recul du commerce dû à une montée du protectionnisme.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Gaulier & Walter Steingress & Soledad Zignago, 2017. "The Normalization of Global Trade and China [Normalisation du commerce mondial et Chine]," Eco Notepad (in progress) 03, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:03
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