The Global Imbalance
A comparison of estimated import-demand equations between the U.S. and its main trading partners shows that the U.S. has a higher income of import demand than its trading partners: and that its elasticity exhibited a quantum jump in the years since 1995. Thus, if all countries experienced the same growth rate, the U.S. would develop a trade deficit, and some other countries - a surplus. The large and rising U.S. trade deficit is due both to high growth rate and high propensity to import. The paper does not address the question of whether the capital account drives the current account or vice versa. Given the U.S. price elasticity of import demand, it would require a 30 percent depreciation of the dollar to lower imports by 20 percent. Exports will then rise, but by a lesser amount. This is an abstract of a paper presented at 15th International Conference, Bangkok, Thailand, May 2005.
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|Date of creation:||18 May 2005|
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