Belarusian Economy in 2013: An Attempt to Reload Old Growth Model (in Russian)

This study deals with Belarusian macroeconomic dynamics in 2013. The problem of poor growth potential remains important in 2013. Nevertheless, the progress in structural reforms was scarce, as the government was too optimistic in respect to inertia growth mechanisms. Hence, 2013 is likely to be summarized as year when the government attempted to ÔreloadÕ the existing model of the national economy. The outcomes of this attempt can hardly be treated as satisfactory ones. Price competitiveness of domestic produces shrank substantially given active expansion of consumer demand supported by the government. However, other demand components were not stimulated so actively given lowering effectiveness of correspondent economic policy tools. For instance, contradictions in monetary policy objectives and low effectiveness of its tools became rather evident in 2013, which has formed a kind of monetary policy trap. Finally, Belarus in 2013 entered a phase of cyclical recession, which might become a long-lasting one. Moreover, a broad range of distortions has been accumulated during the year, which highlights the vitality of macroeconomic adjustment.