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How Employment Framing Affects Trade Preferences: Evidence from Survey Experiments

Author

Listed:
  • Marisol Rodríguez Chatruc
  • Ernesto Stein
  • Razvan Vlaicu
  • Victor Zuluaga

Abstract

International trade increases aggregate welfare but also creates winners and losers, making it politically contentious. Recent research has established that individuals are more sensitive to anti-trade information about employment loss than to pro-trade information about lower prices or greater variety. This paper studies how individual attitudes and beliefs change in response to information about employment losses (in import-competing sectors), gains (in export-oriented sectors), and the possibility of compensation for displaced workers. To this end, a large-scale survey experiment was implemented in 18 Latin American countries using nationally representative samples. The results suggest that anti-trade information reduces support for trade even when compensation is mentioned, while pro-trade messages increase support only when they emphasize employment gains. Belief updating about trade's employment effects seems to be a relevant mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Marisol Rodríguez Chatruc & Ernesto Stein & Razvan Vlaicu & Victor Zuluaga, 2026. "How Employment Framing Affects Trade Preferences: Evidence from Survey Experiments," Working Papers 2026-08, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2026-08
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    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B5A819204-6E8D-DAD0-9328-4D365E654745%7D.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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