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The transmission of monetary policy shocks in Italy

  • Eugenio Gaiotti

    ()

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

The paper studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Italy, by means of a structural VAR, using a long data sample; focusing on a long sample period permits a comparison between the Italian evidence and the international literature and makes it possible to test the robustness of the results in relation to structural and institutional changes. The interest rates on the refinancing operations of the Bank of Italy are used as measures of monetary policy; the identification of policy shocks is based on a reaction function that includes the exchange rate among its arguments. Under these identifying assumptions, the responses of output and prices to a monetary shock are consistent with the main findings in the international literature; however, the size of the estimated price response is large, leading to a divergence from existing structural models of the Italian economy, in which the effects of monetary policy on prices are limited. After a restriction, real wages increase (in contrast, in the US they decrease); the exchange rate appreciates; the fall in import prices precedes the decrease in consumer prices.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 363.

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Date of creation: Dec 1999
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_363_99
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Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it

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  1. Gressani, Daniela & Guiso, Luigi & Visco, Ignazio, 1988. "Disinflation in Italy: An analysis with the econometric model of the bank of Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 163-203.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Eric M. Leeper & David B. Gordon, 1991. "In search of the liquidity effect," Working Paper 91-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carlo A. Favero, . "Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: an Evaluation," Working Papers 132, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  6. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1998. "In Search of Monetary Policy Measures: The Case of Italy in the 1990s," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 57(2), pages 213-250, September.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1989. "Italy: The Real Effects of Inflation and Disinflation," Working Papers 71, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  9. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  10. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May.
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