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Is ECB monetary policy more powerful during expansions?

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  • Martina Cecioni

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper tests whether the effects of ECB monetary policy vary over different phases of the business cycle. It uses local projections to estimate the state-dependent impulse responses of economic activity and prices to monetary policy shocks. These are identified through high-frequency financial market responses after Governing Council meetings. While the impact of monetary policy on economic activity is roughly similar during recessions and expansions, prices respond more strongly during booms. The result holds when the state of the economy is based on measures of resource utilization, rather than on GDP growth rates. Nominal wages also respond more strongly to monetary policy during expansions and when there is no slack in the economy. The empirical findings are consistent with the presence of downward rigidity on nominal wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Cecioni, 2018. "Is ECB monetary policy more powerful during expansions?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1202, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1202_18
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2018/2018-1202/en_tema_1202.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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