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Statistical and forecasting use of electronic payment transactions: collaboration between Bank of Italy and Istat

Author

Listed:
  • Guerino Ardizzi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandra Righi

    (Istat)

Abstract

This paper illustrates how the use of payment data from the databases managed by the Bank of Italy can improve flash estimates of the business cycle and forecasts of the main macro-economic variables. It provides evidence of the importance of electronic payment data in flash estimates and short-term forecasts. In some product sectors, the series of electronic transactions recorded during the pandemic allow us to reduce the forecast error for quarterly final consumption expenditure by more than 50 per cent and to improve the nowcasting error of the total retail index and the e-commerce index by about 6 and 10 per cent respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerino Ardizzi & Alessandra Righi, 2022. "Statistical and forecasting use of electronic payment transactions: collaboration between Bank of Italy and Istat," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 27, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:misp_027_22
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/mercati-infrastrutture-e-sistemi-di-pagamento/questioni-istituzionali/2022-027/N.27-MISP.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cash; payment cards; other payment instruments; forecasts; flash estimates; shadow economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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