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Tracking economic growth in real time during the pandemic: a rationale for a revision of €-coin

Author

Listed:
  • Valentina Aprigliano

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Simone Emiliozzi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Lippi

    (Einauidi Institute for Economics and Finance)

Abstract

Covid-19 caused an abrupt disruption in the world economy and posed big challenges to macroeconomic and time-series analysis. The deep trough in the business cycle was unprecedented in momentum and magnitude, was not approached smoothly, and the pandemic shock was not heralded by any warning signal, as opposed to the run-up to crises triggered by economic factors. Differently from the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, when €-coin performed quite well, during the pandemic the indicator failed to track the intensity of the collapse and of the subsequent recovery in euro area economic activity. In this paper, we investigate the causes of the slow reaction of €-coin to the Covid-19 outbreak and we describe some revisions made to the indicator to get it back on track in estimating the medium- to long-run growth of the economy during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Aprigliano & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Lippi, 2022. "Tracking economic growth in real time during the pandemic: a rationale for a revision of €-coin," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 703, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_703_22
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    measurement of economic activity; business cycle; Covid-19; frequency domain; dynamic factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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