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Investment Irreversibility in a Granular World

Author

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  • Tatsuro Senga

    (KEIO UNIVERSITY AND QUEEN MARY UNIVERSITY OF LONDON)

  • Iacopo Varotto

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA)

Abstract

Does micro-level investment irreversibility amplify or dampen business cycles? We show this depends on the source of aggregate risk. Investment irreversibility reduces fluctuations in both aggregate output and investment when firm-level idiosyncratic shocks aggregate up to economy-wide effects. This contrasts with models driven by aggregate productivity shocks, where irreversibility has little effect on volatility. The key is whether idiosyncratic shocks are suffi ciently volatile to cause the irreversibility constraint to bind cyclically for a significant mass of firms. If so, investment irreversibility hampers productivity-enhancing capital reallocation and reduces business cycle volatility. Moreover, household consumption smoothing is impeded when firms cannot adjust capital optimally, increasing real wage volatility. This labor market effect, combined with capital misallocation, reduces aggregate output volatility by 22 percent and investment volatility by 60 percent. These results highlight the importance of considering the source of economic volatility when assessing investment frictions. We provide empirical support for these predictions using firm-level investment data from Compustat.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatsuro Senga & Iacopo Varotto, 2025. "Investment Irreversibility in a Granular World," Working Papers 2546, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2546
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/41857
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Ghilardi & Roy Zilberman, 2025. "Fiscal Uncertainty in Habit-Forming and Lumpy Economies," Working Papers 431361324, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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