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Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado


  • Teresa Leal

    () (Universidad de Huelva)

  • Javier J. Pérez

    () (Banco de España)


En este trabajo estudiamos las características y los determinantes de las desviaciones entre las cifras iniciales y finales de los ingresos y gastos públicos incluidos en los presupuestos generales del Estado en el período 1985-2006. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar el grado de cumplimiento del presupuesto a través de la localización de desviaciones sistemáticas, identificando en el caso que sea posible la naturaleza económica, política o institucional de estas desviaciones. En línea con los trabajos existentes para otros países, y también para España, detectamos la presencia de sesgos sistemáticos en las previsiones presupuestarias, que podrían indicar la existencia de un cierto margen de mejora en la planificación presupuestaria.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado," Working Papers 0933, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0933

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    More about this item


    errores de predicción; sesgo; eficiencia.;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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