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Trump's Tariff Threat: Likely Impact on India's Agriculture Trade

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Listed:
  • Ashok Gulati

    (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER))

  • Harsh Wardhan

  • Sulakshana Rao

  • Tanay Suntwal

Abstract

This policy brief assesses the potential implications of reciprocal tariffs on India's agricultural exports, analysing key trade trends, tariff disparities, and non-tariff barriers. While India has historically relied on protective tariffs to safeguard domestic farmers, retaliatory measures from the U.S. could reduce market access for Indian agricultural products. The challenge for India is to balance domestic agricultural interests while ensuring that trade relations with the US remain stable. Overall, it seems that in case of reciprocal tariffs in agriculture, India’s agri-exports to US may come down and its imports from US will go up, thereby reducing or even wiping out the agri-trade surplus.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashok Gulati & Harsh Wardhan & Sulakshana Rao & Tanay Suntwal, 2025. "Trump's Tariff Threat: Likely Impact on India's Agriculture Trade," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) Policy Paper 36, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdc:ppaper:36
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