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A New Look into Credit Procyclicality: International Panel Evidence

  • Ricardo Bebczuk

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Tamara Burdisso

    ()

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Jorge Carrera

    ()

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Máximo Sangiácomo

    ()

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

The goal of this paper is to provide up-to-date worldwide evidence on the short-term relationship between credit changes and output changes. Standard correlation methods, state of-the-art panel Granger causality tests, and panel regressions were applied on a maximum sample of 144 countries over the period 1990-2007. Our results openly clash with two popular economic statements, namely, that credit is procyclical and that changes in credit have strong effects on private expenditure. According to the evidence produced, credit procyclicality -in the sense that the simple correlation coefficient is positive and significant at 10% or less- prevails in just 45% of the countries when annual data are used (23% with quarterly data). As for time precedence, our work suggests that, for the full sample, Granger causality runs from GDP to credit, while the often claimed causality from credit to GDP is a feature observable much less frequently –this behavior is observed only in financially developed countries. Results are robust to random resampling. Furthermore, after considering the potential presence of endogeneity, we contend that our results uncover not just mere Granger causality but economic causality. All in all, these findings have vast academic and policy implications.

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File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/WP_55_2011i.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its series BCRA Working Paper Series with number 201155.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:201155
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  1. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  2. Christophe Hurlin & Elena Dumitrescu, 2012. "Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels," Working Papers halshs-00224434, HAL.
  3. Carlo Brambilla & Giandomenico Piluso, 2007. "Are Banks Procyclical? Evidence from the Italian Case (1890-1973)," Department of Economics University of Siena 523, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
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  8. Christophe Hurlin & Baptiste Venet, 2008. "Financial Development and Growth: A Re-Examination using a Panel Granger Causality Test," Working Papers halshs-00319995, HAL.
  9. Henderson, Brian J. & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Weisbach, Michael S., 2006. "World markets for raising new capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 63-101, October.
  10. World Bank, 2001. "Finance for Growth : Policy Choices in a Volatile World," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13895.
  11. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
  12. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris & Worms, Andreas, 2006. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and bank lending: evidence for Germany and the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, March.
  15. Heider, Florian & Gropp, Reint, 2008. "The Determinants of Capital Structure: Some Evidence from Banks," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-015, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  16. J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank.
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