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Argentina 1999 – 2005: Analyzing the Market of Bank Lending for Companies During Times of Sudden Changes of Economic Regimes

Listed author(s):
  • Gustavo Gonzalez Padilla


    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Laura Orué


    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Gastón Repetto


    (Central Bank of Argentina)

The change in regime that came about in Argentine by 2001 provides an opportunity to explore the behaviour of economic agents in a context of changes in the incentives structure, and to consider the way in which their characteristics influenced the observed behaviours. We explore – by tapping the rich data available in the data bases of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic, National Customs Administration and the Federal Bureau for Public Revenue how the demand for financing by productive units was validated through the bank lending market. We have found that the Argentine financial system showed a behaviour consistent with the one predicted by models of Twin Crises, and that it started out, after a turbulent 2002, on the path to recovery. Despite the fact that the behaviour of aggregate lending was in line with a contraction of demand, a detailed study permits to observe that such a conclusion is dispelled. The estimated models contribute significantly and cogently to explain the amounts effectively transacted in the lending market. There is, lastly, clear evidence of the instability of parameters along the period. Such instability is transitory for some variables but others display changes that seem of a more abiding nature.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its series BCRA Working Paper Series with number 200609.

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Length: 253 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:200609
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization:An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 13427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  3. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
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