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Evolução do Desemprego no Brasil no Período 2003-2013: análise através das probabilidades de transição

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  • Fábio José Ferreira da Silva
  • Leandro Siani Pires

Abstract

The unemployment rate can be expressed by two components: the probability that an unemployed worker finds a job and the probability that an employed worker becomes unemployed. According to the methodology developed in Shimer (2012) and Elsby et al. (2009) this article calculates these factors for the aggregate of the main Brazilian metropolitan areas during the period 2003-2013 when unemployment fell substantially. We found that the reduction in the probability that an employed worker becomes unemployed was responsible for about 80% of the result. Employed workers experienced a generalized improvement, independent of job duration. Benefits to the unemployed workers were timid and segmented, excluding the long-term unemployed.

Suggested Citation

  • Fábio José Ferreira da Silva & Leandro Siani Pires, 2014. "Evolução do Desemprego no Brasil no Período 2003-2013: análise através das probabilidades de transição," Working Papers Series 349, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:349
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/TD349.pdf
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