IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/316.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Política Monetária e Assimetria de Informação: um estudo a partir do mercado futuro de taxas de juros no Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Araújo
  • Bruno Vieira Carvalho
  • Claudio Henrique Barbedo
  • Margarida Maria Gutierrez

Abstract

This work relates the adverse selection cost component (ASC) embedded in the spreads of the Brazilian interest rate future market and the probability of Informed Trading (PIN) or superior analysis to monetary policy. We used the Huang and Stoll model (1997) adapted to an order driven market to estimate the ASC. For estimating the PIN we used the Easley et al model (1996). Besides the size of both measures, we study: a) if they change with the approach of the meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee; b) if they are different in each of the six days prior to Committee's decision; and c) its relationship with market expectations about the Committee's decision. The results show that both measures reach its maximum two days before the decision. Although ASC show a downward trend over time, his latest reversal behavior suggests that the trend may not be permanent. The PIN suffers an abrupt reduction over time and starts to behave in a lower level. We found no evidence that the information asymmetry is different for the pre-decision and control periods. However, we found a strong correlation of both ASC and PIN with the dispersion of market expectations about the Committee's decision.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Araújo & Bruno Vieira Carvalho & Claudio Henrique Barbedo & Margarida Maria Gutierrez, 2013. "Política Monetária e Assimetria de Informação: um estudo a partir do mercado futuro de taxas de juros no Brasil," Working Papers Series 316, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:316
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/port/TD316.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo). General contact details of provider: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.