IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Output Gap and GDP in Brazil: a real-time data analysis


  • Rafael Tiecher Cusinato
  • André Minella
  • Sabino da Silva Pôrto Júnior


Economic agents make decisions using real-time data. However, recent literature has shown that several economic activity measures go through important revisions over time, impairing the reliability of real-time data. We organize a real-time dataset for Brazil’s GDP, and assess the revisions of GDP growth and the output gap. We show that GDP growth revisions are substantial, with a 0.7 p.p. mean absolute revision for the quarter-over-quarter growth, although the revisions become less important for four-quarter changes. To assess output gap revisions, we use four methods to estimate the output gap: Hodrick-Prescott filter, linear trend, quadratic trend, and Harvey-Clark model of unobservable components. The output gap revisions are substantial in all methods, with absolute mean revisions between 0.6 p.p. and 2.3 p.p. In three out of the four methods, the revisions implied changes in the output gap sign in 30 percent or more of the cases. In general, both the GDP data revision and the sample increase are relevant sources of output gap revisions. Key words: Real-time data; Output gap; Gross Domestic Product; Business cycle; Brazil. JEL classification: C82; E32.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Tiecher Cusinato & André Minella & Sabino da Silva Pôrto Júnior, 2010. "Output Gap and GDP in Brazil: a real-time data analysis," Working Papers Series 203, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:203

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:12:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-016-0004-3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.