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Hiato do Produto e PIB no Brasil: uma Análise de Dados em Tempo Real

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Tiecher Cusinato
  • André Minella
  • Sabino da Silva Pôrto Júnior

Abstract

Economic agents make decisions using real-time data. However, recent literature has shown that several economic activity measures go through important revisions over time, impairing the reliability of real-time data. We organize a real-time dataset for Brazil’s GDP, and assess the revisions of GDP growth and the output gap. We show that GDP growth revisions are substantial, with a 0.7 p.p. mean absolute revision for the quarter-over-quarter growth, although the revisions become less important for four-quarter changes. To assess output gap revisions, we use four methods to estimate the output gap: Hodrick-Prescott filter, linear trend, quadratic trend, and Harvey-Clark model of unobservable components. The output gap revisions are substantial in all methods, with absolute mean revisions between 0.6 p.p. and 2.3 p.p. In three out of the four methods, the revisions implied changes in the output gap sign in 30 percent or more of the cases. In general, both the GDP data revision and the sample increase are relevant sources of output gap revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Tiecher Cusinato & André Minella & Sabino da Silva Pôrto Júnior, 2010. "Hiato do Produto e PIB no Brasil: uma Análise de Dados em Tempo Real," Working Papers Series 203, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:203
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Sarah Lima & Marco Malgarini, 2016. "Does a Survey Based Capacity Utilization Measure Help Predicting Brazilian Output Gap in Real-Time?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 119-139, September.
    3. Rodrigo Melo Gois & Marco Antonio Jorge, 2017. "Investigating the Okun’s Law in Brazil and three of its Metropolitan Areas," Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), Mackenzie Presbyterian University, Social and Applied Sciences Center, vol. 14(1), pages 24-58, January-J.

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