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Potencial futuro de la oferta mundial de petroleo: un analisis de las principales fuentes de incertidumbre

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  • Tatiana Alonso
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    Este trabajo pretende contribuir, desde una perspectiva informada, al debate existente en torno a la cuestion del pico petrolero y la sostenibilidad futura del modelo energetico imperante. En concreto, el objetivo principal es favorecer la toma de conciencia general acerca del elevado grado de incertidumbre que existe en torno al potencial fisico futuro de la oferta mundial de petroleo. Las principales fuentes de incertidumbre identificadas en este analisis se hallan, por un lado, en la falta de informacion contrastada acerca del volumen de reservas existentes y, por otro, en la falta de un conocimiento preciso acerca de la tasa de declive mostrada por la oferta mundial de petroleo. La fiabilidad de las estimaciones disponibles acerca de estas dos variables se ve claramente mermada por la baja disponibilidad y calidad de los datos de partida utilizados.

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    Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 0904.

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    Length: 23 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2009
    Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0904
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