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Perspectivas del empleo ante el cambio de ciclo. Un analisis de flujos

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Ramon Garcia
  • Cristina Fernandez

Abstract

En este documento pretendemos inferir cual sera el comportamiento de la creacion de empleo en el ano 2008 a partir de los flujos que la determinan (transicion desde el empleo, desde el desempleo y desde la inactividad). Para ello, estimamos los determinantes de la probabilidad de transitar de una situacion laboral a otra en funcion de las caracteristicas personales y laborales de los individuos, asi como del ciclo economico, utilizando los datos de la EPA de flujos para el periodo 1999:I- 2007:II. Como indicadores del ciclo economico utilizamos dos variables: la tasa de variacion interanual del PIB trimestral, que recoge el efecto del nivel, y su diferencia estacional, que refleja si la economia se encuentra en una senda de aceleracion o desaceleracion. El balance de los cambios en las probabilidades de transicion se materializara en una ralentizacion del empleo EPA en 2008, con una tasa de crecimiento que se situara entre el 0,8% y el 3,2%

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Ramon Garcia & Cristina Fernandez, 2007. "Perspectivas del empleo ante el cambio de ciclo. Un analisis de flujos," Working Papers 0704, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0704
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    creacion de empleo; ciclo; transiciones laborales;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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