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Perspectivas del empleo ante el cambio de ciclo. Un analisis de flujos

Listed author(s):
  • Juan Ramon Garcia
  • Cristina Fernandez

En este documento pretendemos inferir cual sera el comportamiento de la creacion de empleo en el ano 2008 a partir de los flujos que la determinan (transicion desde el empleo, desde el desempleo y desde la inactividad). Para ello, estimamos los determinantes de la probabilidad de transitar de una situacion laboral a otra en funcion de las caracteristicas personales y laborales de los individuos, asi como del ciclo economico, utilizando los datos de la EPA de flujos para el periodo 1999:I- 2007:II. Como indicadores del ciclo economico utilizamos dos variables: la tasa de variacion interanual del PIB trimestral, que recoge el efecto del nivel, y su diferencia estacional, que refleja si la economia se encuentra en una senda de aceleracion o desaceleracion. El balance de los cambios en las probabilidades de transicion se materializara en una ralentizacion del empleo EPA en 2008, con una tasa de crecimiento que se situara entre el 0,8% y el 3,2%

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Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 0704.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0704
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