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Transmision de choques macroeconomicos: modelo de pequena escala con expectativas racionales para la economia mexicana

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  • Ociel Hernandez Zamudio

Abstract

En este documento se disena e implementa un modelo econometrico en pequena escala para la economia mexicana (semiestructural). Se considera el papel que juegan las expectativas en la economia, asi como las restricciones nominales y reales que ocasionan un progresivo ajuste de los ciclos. Esta condicion es lo que hace de este trabajo una aportacion en la literatura empirica en Mexico. Los resultados y simulaciones del modelo sustentan su especificacion al derivarse trayectorias acordes con la teoria y proceso empirico, ademas de permitir soluciones consistentes, eficientes y unicas. Asimismo, se captura apropiadamente la dinamica de la inflacion, crecimiento, y politica monetaria. En esta ultima, corroboramos que la accion del banco central se ha concentrado en influir sobre las expectativas de inflacion, pero permitiendo una convergencia gradual que sea congruente con el ciclo de actividad economica. Por otro lado, se realizan ejercicios para especular sobre las consecuencias macroeconomicas de ajustes en las primas de riesgo de las tasas de interes y nivel del PIB potencial. La dinamica de estas simulaciones nos instruye sobre los posibles beneficios de impulsar una politica estrategica que desarrolle las capacidades productivas de la economia y minimice la variabilidad de la percepcion riesgo pais.

Suggested Citation

  • Ociel Hernandez Zamudio, 2006. "Transmision de choques macroeconomicos: modelo de pequena escala con expectativas racionales para la economia mexicana," Working Papers 0601, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0601
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