IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bbv/wpaper/0601.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transmision de choques macroeconomicos: modelo de pequena escala con expectativas racionales para la economia mexicana

Author

Listed:
  • Ociel Hernandez Zamudio

Abstract

En este documento se disena e implementa un modelo econometrico en pequena escala para la economia mexicana (semiestructural). Se considera el papel que juegan las expectativas en la economia, asi como las restricciones nominales y reales que ocasionan un progresivo ajuste de los ciclos. Esta condicion es lo que hace de este trabajo una aportacion en la literatura empirica en Mexico. Los resultados y simulaciones del modelo sustentan su especificacion al derivarse trayectorias acordes con la teoria y proceso empirico, ademas de permitir soluciones consistentes, eficientes y unicas. Asimismo, se captura apropiadamente la dinamica de la inflacion, crecimiento, y politica monetaria. En esta ultima, corroboramos que la accion del banco central se ha concentrado en influir sobre las expectativas de inflacion, pero permitiendo una convergencia gradual que sea congruente con el ciclo de actividad economica. Por otro lado, se realizan ejercicios para especular sobre las consecuencias macroeconomicas de ajustes en las primas de riesgo de las tasas de interes y nivel del PIB potencial. La dinamica de estas simulaciones nos instruye sobre los posibles beneficios de impulsar una politica estrategica que desarrolle las capacidades productivas de la economia y minimice la variabilidad de la percepcion riesgo pais.

Suggested Citation

  • Ociel Hernandez Zamudio, 2006. "Transmision de choques macroeconomicos: modelo de pequena escala con expectativas racionales para la economia mexicana," Working Papers 0601, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0601
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/migrados/WP_0601_tcm346-212880.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (OSCAR DE LAS PENAS SANCHEZ-CARO). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ebbvaes.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.