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BBVA-ARIES.Un modelo de prediccion y simulacion para la economia de la UEM


  • Sonsoles Castillo
  • Fernando C. Ballabriga


En este articulo se describe el BBVA-ARIES, un modelo macroeconomico VAR Bayesiano construido para la economia de la Union Economica y Monetaria (UEM). El modelo, ademas de ofrecer previsiones de crecimiento e inflacion para el conjunto de la UEM, se utiliza para hacer ejercicios de simulacion que permiten analizar las interrelaciones existentes entre las principales variables macroeconomicas de la UEM y otras variables externas, como el PIB mundial o los precios de las materias primas. La comparacion de las previsiones derivadas del modelo con otras realizadas por analistas privados e instituciones publicas arroja un balance muy positivo a favor del modelo. Por su parte, las simulaciones realizadas permiten proyectar los posibles efectos macroeconomicos de diversos acontecimientos acaecidos durante el primer ano de existencia de la UEM.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonsoles Castillo & Fernando C. Ballabriga, 2000. "BBVA-ARIES.Un modelo de prediccion y simulacion para la economia de la UEM," Working Papers 0001, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0001

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
    4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    6. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    7. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    8. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    9. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro-area economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. David H. Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
    11. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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