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BBVA-ARIES.Un modelo de prediccion y simulacion para la economia de la UEM

Author

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  • Sonsoles Castillo
  • Fernando C. Ballabriga

Abstract

En este articulo se describe el BBVA-ARIES, un modelo macroeconomico VAR Bayesiano construido para la economia de la Union Economica y Monetaria (UEM). El modelo, ademas de ofrecer previsiones de crecimiento e inflacion para el conjunto de la UEM, se utiliza para hacer ejercicios de simulacion que permiten analizar las interrelaciones existentes entre las principales variables macroeconomicas de la UEM y otras variables externas, como el PIB mundial o los precios de las materias primas. La comparacion de las previsiones derivadas del modelo con otras realizadas por analistas privados e instituciones publicas arroja un balance muy positivo a favor del modelo. Por su parte, las simulaciones realizadas permiten proyectar los posibles efectos macroeconomicos de diversos acontecimientos acaecidos durante el primer ano de existencia de la UEM.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonsoles Castillo & Fernando C. Ballabriga, 2000. "BBVA-ARIES.Un modelo de prediccion y simulacion para la economia de la UEM," Working Papers 0001, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0001
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