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The macroeconomic impact of the euro

Author

Listed:
  • Akhmadieva, Veronika

    (Birkbeck, University of London)

  • Smith, Ron P

    (Birkbeck, University of London)

Abstract

This paper examines whether the establishment of the euro caused structural breaks in the main macroeconomic relationships of member countries. It compares eight original members of the common currency with four European countries that did not join. The analysis constructs counterfactuals using both single equation models and a six equation vector autoregression with foreign exogenous variables, VARX*, explaining output, inflation, equity prices, exchange rates and short and long interest rates. It considers which equations changed the most and the most likely dates for any structural break.

Suggested Citation

  • Akhmadieva, Veronika & Smith, Ron P, 2019. "The macroeconomic impact of the euro," BCAM Working Papers 1903, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkcam:1903
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 11, number 9780198739876.
    2. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    3. Saka, Orkun & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2015. "ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-185.
    4. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "The legacy of the Eurozone crisis and how to overcome it," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 147-155.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro; structural-breaks; GVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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