IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ays/ispwps/paper0218.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Money Supply and Government Expenditure Shock in Indonesia: Symmetric or Asymmetric?

Author

Abstract

It has been more then four years since the economic crisis in Indonesia. While other Asian countries such as South Korea and Malaysia have shown significant improvement, Indonesia seems to have the slowest economic recovery process. In order to deal with the economic crisis, the government has imposed several policies, both monetary and fiscal. This paper tries to achieve two objectives; first, it tries to determine the existence of an asymmetric reaction of output and inflation to government expenditures and the money supply, and second, it tries to find the best policy to deal with the economic crisis, i.e., to determine which policy generates a larger and quicker response to output. It contains an overview of government expenditures and the money supply in the pre-crisis year, theoretical background and data analysis. The results of the study show that a shock in government expenditures has a significant effect on changes in output, and that the effect is asymmetric (positive shock has a larger impact than negative shock), while a money supply shock does not have a statistically significant effect on output. The paper concludes with three important government policy implications. First, the government must reallocate its spending, i.e. allocate more to development expenditures which will increase the productive capacity. Second, since Indonesia currently has a huge debt burden, it is not necessary for the government to increase its expenditures, since the effect on output reduction is not statistically significant. Third, the monetary authority should not use a shock in money supply to boost output, but it should focus on its function in delivering a low level of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Vid Adrison, 2002. "The Effect of Money Supply and Government Expenditure Shock in Indonesia: Symmetric or Asymmetric?," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0218, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0218
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://icepp.gsu.edu/files/2015/03/ispwp0218.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    2. Thomas Lindh, 2000. "Short-Run Costs of Financial Market Development in Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 221-239, Spring.
    3. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    5. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    7. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E., 1995. "Financial development and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-448, March.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2006. "Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 37-74, March.
    9. Roubini, Nouriel & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Financial repression and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 5-30, July.
    10. Levine, Ross, 1998. "The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long-Run Economic Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 596-613, August.
    11. Lee, Jaewoo, 1996. "Financial development by learning," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 147-164, June.
    12. Philip Arestis & Panicos Demetriades & Bassam Fattouh, 2003. "Financial Policies and the Aggregate Productivity of the Capital Stock: Evidence from Developed and Developing Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 217-242, Spring.
    13. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    14. Hicks, J. R., 1969. "A Theory of Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198811633.
    15. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 783-799, May.
    16. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    17. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    18. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    indonesia; government expenditures;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Benson). General contact details of provider: http://aysps.gsu.edu/isp/index.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.