Shining a Spotlight on Targeted Subsidies for Mobile Industries: Evidence from Georgia's Film Tax Credit

We study whether a large place-based subsidy can do more than attract highly mobile economic activity by examining Georgia's 2008 expansion of its Film Tax Credit. Using synthetic difference-in-differences with alternative donor pools, we estimate effects on production location and industry scale; we then use a national DDD design to examine worker outcomes. The credit increased Georgia's share of U.S. film projects by 12.6 percentage points and film budgets by 18.9 percentage points. Film-industry employment also increased substantially, with the largest gains emerging several years later, while evidence for wages, establishments, and related industries is more qualified. Worker outcomes improve, but migration and pretrend concerns limit claims about long-term incumbent residents. Over 2013-2019, generated credits amount to roughly $68,000 per additional job-year relative to the counterfactual. The results show that successful attraction can produce substantial industry scaling without necessarily establishing broad spillovers, incumbent gains, or self-sustaining local development.