IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aue/wpaper/2618.html

Integrated scenario analysis under energy, water and decarbonization stress: the case of Rwanda

Author

Listed:
  • Phoebe Koundouri

    (Dept. of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business)

  • Angelos Alamanos
  • Giannis Arampatzidis
  • Ebun Akinsete

    (ICRE8)

  • Dimitris Raptis
  • Anna Triantafyllidou

Abstract

Crises such as rapid population and demand growth, droughts, resource availability fluctuations, and supply-chain disruptions increasingly expose hidden fragilities in socio-technical systems. At the same time, they generate political momentum and practical urgency for institutional and governance innovation, as emergency measures often become prototypes for routine practice. This paper develops a national-scale, multi-sector water-energy-emissions (W-E-E) scenario model for Rwanda and uses it to test how demand growth, hydrological stress, and supply-side choices jointly shape future energy security and emissions trajectories through 2050. The analysis shows that, under SSP2 and especially SSP5 growth conditions, emissions remain strongly demand-driven; therefore, even ambitious demand-side and supply-side measures are best interpreted as pathways that moderate, rather than fully reverse, emissions growth. The contribution of the study is to identify which combinations of efficiency, electrification, renewable deployment, thermal retirement, and hydrological risk management most effectively reduce system stress and improve resilience under compound crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Phoebe Koundouri & Angelos Alamanos & Giannis Arampatzidis & Ebun Akinsete & Dimitris Raptis & Anna Triantafyllidou, 2026. "Integrated scenario analysis under energy, water and decarbonization stress: the case of Rwanda," DEOS Working Papers 2618, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:2618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wpa.deos.aueb.gr/docs/2618.Rwanda.WEE.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:2618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ekaterini Glynou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diauegr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.