When Crisis Strikes: How Natural Disasters Transform Fairness Norms Across Generations

While the direct impacts of natural disasters are well studied, a less explored consequence is the scarcity they create and the resulting reallocation of resources. This paper examines this second-order effect by analyzing how disaster-driven scarcity reshapes fairness considerations within society. Using data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) and the European Social Survey (ESS), we show that disaster exposure increases perceptions of solidarity-driven fairness, including social support, rewards for effort, and equal access to medical and police services, while reducing perceptions of scarcity-driven fairness such as wage equality for low earners, access to education, the functioning of the political system, and overall societal fairness. As climate-related disasters are a cross-border phenomenon, we also study spillovers from neighboring countries and find that such shocks can strengthen solidarity-based fairness while simultaneously heightening skepticism toward institutional and societal fairness. Finally, we explore mechanisms, i.e., trust in institutions, foreign direct investment, EU funds, trade, GDP growth, and income that condition these relationships and shape how individuals interpret fairness norms related to equality, justice, and need after a disaster.