Assessing the impact of climate change on mean annual wave agitation and berth downtime at two major ports of the eastern Mediterranean Sea: Port of Piraeus, Greece and Port of Limassol, Cyprus

This study assesses the impact of climate change on mean annual wave agitation and berth downtime at two major Eastern Mediterranean ports: the Port of Piraeus, Greece, and the Port of Limassol, Cyprus. Using high-fidelity numerical modeling under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) up to 2100, changes in wave agitation within the port basins are evaluated, both with and without accounting for Sea Level Rise (SLR). Results indicate that climate change will not lead to a uniform increase in wave agitation; rather, outcomes vary depending on the adopted RCP scenario, time period, and specific location within each port basin. While SLR does not significantly alter mean annual wave agitation, its contribution is evident as a slight increase in agitation compared to scenarios excluding SLR. Regarding mean annual berth downtime, more exposed berths in both ports are projected to face significant increases. The influence of SLR on downtime is inconsistent, especially at the Port of Piraeus, where it may increase, decrease, or have negligible effects depending on location. These findings highlight the complex interplay between wave dynamics, local geomorphology, and port infrastructure, emphasizing the importance of port-specific climate resilience assessments.