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A simulation-driven assessment of 35 European National Energy and Climate Plans

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Listed:
  • Phoebe Koundouri
  • Angelos Alamanos
  • Giannis Arampatzidis
  • Stathis Devves
  • Tatiana Pliakou
  • Christopher Deranian

Abstract

Achieving climate neutrality in Europe is a critical goal, yet there is no model-based assessment detailing the key factors and assumptions of each Member State's National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Filling that gap, we evaluated 35 NECPs and simulated them together in a single energy-emissions model, creating a consolidated European National Commitments (NC) scenario. We built a LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) model covering energy consumption and production in the residential, industrial, agricultural, transport (terrestrial, maritime, aviation), and services sectors. For each fuel type and end use, we calculated multi�pollutant greenhouse gas emissions. Under the NC scenario, significant emissions reductions emerge across all sectors by 2050, driven by energy efficiency gains and cleaner fuel mixes. However, achieving these reductions depends on fully implementing 35 NECPs, which vary substantially in their timelines, ambition levels, data granularity, and fuel-trade assumptions. We highlight these inconsistencies and offer policy recommendations tailored by sector, country, and policy frameworks, providing critical insights to ensure a feasible, holistic and equitable transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Phoebe Koundouri & Angelos Alamanos & Giannis Arampatzidis & Stathis Devves & Tatiana Pliakou & Christopher Deranian, 2025. "A simulation-driven assessment of 35 European National Energy and Climate Plans," DEOS Working Papers 2550, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:2550
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    File URL: http://wpa.deos.aueb.gr/docs/2025.paperNECPs.v4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anne Jensen & Helle Ørsted Nielsen & Duncan Russel, 2020. "Climate Policy in a Fragmented World—Transformative Governance Interactions at Multiple Levels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-8, November.
    2. Koen Greevenbroek & Aleksander Grochowicz & Marianne Zeyringer & Fred Espen Benth, 2025. "Trading off regional and overall energy system design flexibility in the net-zero transition," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 629-641, June.
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