IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2610.21196.html

The end-of-month option in futures contracts and the Gittins index of holding the underlying

Author

Listed:
  • Erhan Bayraktar

Abstract

The end-of-month option allows the short in a futures contract to choose when to deliver during a window in which the delivery price is fixed. We characterize optimal delivery through a universal index obtained from the Bank--El Karoui representation theorem. In the semimartingale setting, this is the Gittins index of holding the underlying and collecting its convenience yield, and the futures price is the retirement reward for which the value of this project equals the spot price. This characterization yields price bounds and a criterion for immediate delivery. Dinkelbach's iteration reduces the price computation to a sequence of standard optimal stopping problems, with an explicit contraction bound. We apply the theory to geometric Brownian motion and the Gibson--Schwartz model with stochastic convenience yield. For geometric Brownian motion, we characterize when the futures price equals spot and derive a square-root boundary asymptotic near expiry. For the Gibson--Schwartz model, we establish monotonicity in the yield and characterize the critical yield below which the price equals spot. Numerical results illustrate the price iteration and delivery regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhan Bayraktar, 2026. "The end-of-month option in futures contracts and the Gittins index of holding the underlying," Papers 2610.21196, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.21196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.21196
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.21196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.