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Stochastic Optimal Control of Hawkes Jump-Diffusion Systems

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  • Daria Sakhanda
  • Joshu'e Hel'i Ricalde-Guerrero

Abstract

This paper is devoted to developing a framework for stochastic growth models with environmental risk, in which rare but catastrophic shocks interact with capital accumulation and pollution. Building on the Poisson point process formulation studied in arXiv:2511.13568, we extend the model to disasters driven by a marked Hawkes process, allowing past disasters to temporarily increase the likelihood of subsequent shocks. Our work focuses on a subcritical Markovian Hawkes specification, in which the state space is augmented by the self-excitation component of disaster risk. We establish the well-posedness and nonexplosion of the resulting controlled Hawkes dynamics. Using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman characterization of the corresponding Poisson control problem, we obtain quantitative estimates for the Hawkes excitation process and prove, under a small-excitation scaling, that the Hawkes value function converges to its Poisson counterpart as the magnitude of self-excitation vanishes. This provides a rigorous Poisson approximation of the stochastic control problem and quantifies the effect of self-excitation on optimal growth under environmental disaster risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Daria Sakhanda & Joshu'e Hel'i Ricalde-Guerrero, 2026. "Stochastic Optimal Control of Hawkes Jump-Diffusion Systems," Papers 2608.29473, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.29473
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    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.29473
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